Up or Down Ser? 003 - Bulls on Parade
Bears are in trouble, but haven't lost all control 𝑦𝑒𝑡
We Gucci now yeah?
Well that was quite the weekend, with Bitcoin’s long anticipated breakout of the descending trend line, and reclaim of the daily tenkan resulting in a glorious 10% pump.
The asian session opened bullishly, CT is as euphoric as an 18 year old girl at her first Coachella and HSBAF memes are being dished out thick and fast.
So, is it time to yolo in and walk away? Not just yet.
𝑈𝑝 𝑜𝑟 𝐷𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑆𝑒𝑟? 𝐷𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑒, 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑦𝑠𝑖𝑠 & 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑦𝑜𝑢 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑑𝑔𝑒 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡. 𝑆𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑? 𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑘 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑒 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑏𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑤:
𝑁𝑜𝑤 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡’𝑠 𝑠𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑒𝑑, 𝑙𝑒𝑡’𝑠 𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑜𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑡.
The weekly cloud shows a beautiful rejection from below the cloud, with an impulse candle closing back above it. This is high timeframe confirmation that further downside is off the cards for the time being (bar war/Covid 2.0/legacy market meltdown etc).
One must be aware that the cloud remains flat (signifying a lack of directional momentum), the TK lines are curling towards each other in an ugly manner, and the lagging span is threatening to cross back under price should we not get continuation fast.
In a nutshell we’ve bounced off range low, and are reverting to the mean (as per my last Bitcoin report).
So we’ve closed above the cloud, and broken out of the lower range. This implies a retest of 45-46K is on the cards. In an ideal world we would form a higher low at that point, come back down to retest 42K, before continuing back up.
But Ser, @XRPto589 on my timeline said $100K is programmed for next week…
Regardless of what the retards on CT are tweeting this morning, I put the chances of “55K in one candle” to be <5%. So expect a HL and liquidity hunt back below range highs prior to continuation at some point.
The daily cloud is showing signs of an unconfirmed reversal.
Unconfirmed doesn’t mean you FOMO in and bet the farm on 20X. It means you start paying attention, move your stables to an exchange, set your alerts, and remain relatively sober until the trade triggers.
Let’s start with the bad news.
The TK lines remain crossed bearishly, albeit their flat nature demonstrates a lack of further downwards momentum. Cloud is bearish, price remains below cloud AND Kijun. It’s safe to say that on the daily timeframe the cloud remains firmly bearish in structure. Therefore, don’t bet full size here. I’m going ½ size as survival > being a hero. I’ll add the other half once things shape up further.
Can haz some hopium ser?
The bulls have (following several rejections) managed to reclaim the Tenkan. This can be considered a fast MA, with equally little significance, and is not a signal in itself. Nonetheless, it’s a move in the right direction, and as Lau Tzu said “The journey to $100K begins with a single reclaim”
Also bullish is the Lagging Span crossing above price, indicating that momentum is shifting towards the upside.
Lastly, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, that long, flat Cloud Span B is just begging to be tested as a mean reversion target.
Should we reclaim the Kijun, then expect us to test Cloud Span A.
Once we close inside the cloud, we’ll have a confirmed setup for an Edge to Edge move. TP is the Cloud Span B, invalidation is a close outside the Cloud.
One must bear in mind, the E2E trades can often fake in/out a couple of times, before actually making it across, and it’s a higher risk/lower probability setup than a Kumo breakout.
If you read last week’s report, you bought on the close inside the cloud, and are currently chilling in spot watching number go up. Remember to TP wherever price hits Cloud Span B. You can re-enter once we close above it (price often gets rejected on the first test).
TK lines have now crossed bullishly, triggering an exit shorts signal and lagging span is above price.
If you’re more risk averse and didn’t take the E2E trade, a 12H close above the cloud is your signal to go long, with invalidation being a close inside the cloud.
Risk averse? Who the fuck am I kidding? You’re all degen gamblers.
Lastly, the TCP Cloud (working title) has flashed a confirmed buy.
Things are looking up, however bulls are not fully in control on any timeframe yet
TCP Cloud flashed confirmed buy
Significant resistance remains overhead, so size positions accordingly. You can always add more later
You can take an Edge to Edge trade on the Daily. Don’t forget to TP at Cloud Span B, and re-enter on close above
If you’re a li’ll bitch and pee sitting down, you can go long on a 12H close above the cloud
Trade Safe & have a great week.